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"As a first-time homebuyer, I was nervous about the entire process. Step by step, Joe made it easy and fun. His expertise in the Columbus real estate market is a tremendous asset. He is highly recommended!" - Nicolette Horan
"I wanted to say thank you again, so much, for all your hard work. I know that you really put a lot of time into this transaction and I really, really appreciate it. I'm so happy I got the house and it all worked out and I just wanted to say thanks again, you did a great job and i really appreciate it. I will put that on the survey when they send it to me.
If there is ever anything I can do for you, please don't hesitate to give me a call. I will refer every single person I know to you. I'm going to go get my dog and we're going to sit on the floor of our new house and have a glass of champaign. Thanks a lot Joe" -- Michael Mamp
Why has the housing bubble failed to materialize?
February 23rd, 2007 categories: For Home Sellers, Market Updates, Real Estate News
According to Time magazine’s insightful article this week about ‘the housing bubble,’ the most important factor that could cause a catastrophic bust is consumer sentiment.? Specifically, sellers have to become much needier than buyers – under such duress that they will not demand the tidy profits seen 3+ years ago.
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The Time article was written by Bill Tancer, an executive with global tech firm Hitwise, who believes that Internet browsing habits of consumers show their true feelings.? Under his premise, these online patterns are a solid and leading indicator of consumer sentiment and, therefore, the direction of the real estate sector.
Tancer goes on to write that current browsing reveals that sellers and buyers are OK with waiting until ‘the market improves.’? The irony there, IMO, is that prices nationwide may have to fall further before the supply/demand equilibrium balances again, causing prices to stabilize and buyers to feel good about transacting in real estate.? In short, the market will ‘improve’ when more buyers buy.
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On the broader scale, the economy should hold out fine if sellers manage to stay put and make their mortgage payments.? The pain will come for those in the real estate industry, however, as volumes continue to stagnate.? My best case scenario may be that this bearish cycle thins the competition and creates innovation in the industry.?
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I just hope there isn’t a financial accident or a foreign policy blunder that causes massive dollar-value or interest rate changes.? If consumers lose their purchasing power around the same time the bulk of 5/1 ARMs adjust in 2008-2009, I would expect a wave of foreclosures that would cause substantial losses for lenders.? Remember, industry losses often lead to federal bailouts, which eventually trickle down to a loss to you and me.
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Because our market is not one of those broadly affected by speculation, I maintain my belief that the local market could handle any ARM-related downturn just fine.? Last year saw a sales decline of only 4.5% off 2005, while prices slipped 1.8%.? Our diverse economic base of financials, manufacturers, retailers, research / educational institutions, government centers, and logistics offer enough resources to keep the bulk of recent real estate volume moving.? In the off chance that an accident or speculative-based recession caused nationwide problems, the fallout could be greater.?
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As in any market shift, some speculators will lose, while the savvy and the stable should emerge with wallets intact.? And that goes for homeowners as well as real estate professionals.
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You can find the full Time article at http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1592751,00.html?
Jeremiah Arn